Dr. Adrian Vargas-Lopez | Behavioural Economist

About Me

I study how people adapt to climate change, especially those who’ve experienced extreme weather events.

Through experiments and insights from psychology, economics, and planning, I explore decision-making in challenging contexts.

My work informs practical interventions that encourage pro-environmental behaviour and supports climate adaptation efforts.

Publications

How do the consequences on others affect dishonest behavior? Evidence from an online experiment in Mexico

(Link)

Latin American Economic Review, 2025

Giuliana Triberti, Pablo Soto-Mota, Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Luis Serra-Barragán

Dishonesty harms economic performance and growth. However, the literature on dishonesty has used almost exclusively samples from developed countries. In addition, previous studies present non-conclusive results on how concerns for others affect lying behaviour. In view of this gap in the evidence, the present study explores how the decision to be dishonest changes when it affects a charity. In an experiment involving 555 participants in Mexico, subjects could lie about the result of a dice roll without any possibility of detection. We contrast a situation without incentives to three conditions that differ in how dishonesty affected the charity. Deceitful behaviour increased when participants could benefit from it. Also, participants lied less when they received benefits at the expense of the charity, but they did not lie more when they could help it. Our results suggest that making salient how dishonesty harms others might help reduce its negative effects in society.

Farmer adaptation and maladaptation in the face of extreme weather events

(Link)

Q Open, 2024

Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Ann-Kathrin Koessler

With the advent of climate change, extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent and intense, posing significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide. Farmers are among the most vulnerable groups, whose livelihoods depend heavily on weather-sensitive crops. In this paper, we assess whether farmers adapt or maladapt after being exposed to extreme weather events and whether their perceived well-being determines their decisions. By analysing data about the farming practices and conditions of 970 farmers in Thailand, we examine the actions farmers implement, which can be catalogued as adaptation or maladaptation actions. Although our results cannot specify an increase in adaptation or maladaptation actions after experiencing an extreme weather event, we reveal a notable rise in maladaptation with state aid for natural disasters. Similarly, we find that risk tolerance correlates with increased adaptation, while higher patience offsets this effect.

Comparison of Two Different Approaches to Measuring Economic Vulnerability to Food Insecurity: An Application to Mexico Using Official Data

(Link)

Social Indicators Research, 2024

Stefano Marchetti, Luca Secondi, Adrian Vargas-Lopez

The United Nations Social Development Goals ensure the achievement of food security by 2030. Food security is characterized by various aspects, however in this study we focus on economic vulnerability to food insecurity. In particular, we compared two measures: food insecurity levels as defined by the Integrated food security phase classification Global-Partners quantitative scale and those defined by the Latin American and Caribbean Food Security qualitative scale. The qualitative scale only measures nutritional status using specific questions, regardless of food expenditures, while the quantitative scale is based on the share of consumer expenditure spent on food (the ratio between food expenditure and total expenditure). From our analysis on 2018 Mexico data—therefore unaffected by the pandemic—59% of discrepancies were found between the two measures. The qualitative scale does not classify people who spend too much on food as being food insecure, so they are economically vulnerable about housing, healthcare and other important aspects of social life (access to food generate insecurity). The quantitative scale does not identify people who do not have access to high-quality nutrition because they must pay for other fixed expenses, for example for housing or healthcare. These two measures depict two aspects of economic vulnerability to food insecurity, and here we quantify this difference in a developing country. Future research should be at integrating these two aspects into one single indicator based on food and non-food expenditures, so to take into account both the two aspects by using only consumption expenditure data.

The use of the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a Conceptual Framework to Understand and Promote Health Recommendations During the First Wave of Covid-19 in Mexico City

(Link)

Nova Scientia, 2023

Nuria Álvarez Agüí, Enrique Cáceres Nieto, Manuel Alejandro García Martínez, Josafat Hernández, Rosa Lidia López Bejarano, Pablo Soto-Mota, Adrian Vargas-Lopez

In this study, we apply the Theory of Planned Behavior to understand the factors that explained adherence to health recommendations during the first wave of Covid-19 in Mexico City. To do this, we designed and implemented an online survey on prevention measures. In addition, we generate an empirical correlate of the Theory of Planned Behavior to hypothesize about correlations between variables in the survey. In addition, we included four simple experiments in the survey. We found that norms, attitudes and perception of control are correlated with the planning and adoption of preventive actions. In the experiments we observe (1) that corruption reduces the credibility of the government with respect to the health crisis, (2) doctors are more persuasive about prevention, and (3) masks generate feelings of security. We conclude that the Theory of Planned Behavior is useful to make sense of data from surveys like ours. We encourage governments in developing countries to use methods like ours to collect and interpret data, even if provisional, to respond to future health crises.

Consumer expenditure, elasticity and value of food waste: A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System for evaluating changes in Mexico during COVID-19

(Link)

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2022

Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Clara Cicatiello, Ludovica Principato, Luca Secondi

Household food waste is driven by consumer habits and behaviors. The necessary measures implemented during the lockdown worldwide to contain the Covid-19 pandemic altered these consumer practices. This paper examines how household's culinary traditions and food management have changed in Mexico as a result of Covid-related restrictions, and their impact on food waste. We obtained 525 answers using an online survey about food habits distributed through social networks in Mexico between December 2020 and January 2021. The results show that the participating households increased their monetary expenditure on groceries and reduced food waste during the pandemic. The estimation of consumer responsiveness to waste, through the introduction of a framework based on a Quadratic Almost-Ideal Demand System, confirms that, even more during the lockdown, food waste has become a luxury good. The analysis of food category changes allows for a detailed study useful to curtail the level of food waste in Mexican households and to encourage transition towards sustainable and circular consumption behaviors.

Work in Progress

Citizens' Climate Anxiety-Transnational Insights on the Relevance of Green Areas and their Use for Mental Health in Times of Extreme Events

Alexandra Jiricka-Pürrer, Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Matteo Fiorucci, Helena Altenhuber, Karolina Taczanowska, Giulio Senes

(Submitted)

From climate worry to guest welcome: Agritourism as a diversification path for Kosovo’s smallholder farmers

Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Gjylisha Cena, Ann-Kathrin Koessler

(Revise and resubmit)

How inducing negative affect influences adaptation and maladaptation decisions

Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Tobias Vorlaufer, Ann-Kathrin Koessler

(Data analysis)

Mental well-being and adaptation decisions of Mexican farmers following extreme weather events

Adrian Vargas-Lopez, Tobias Vorlaufer, Ann-Kathrin Koessler

(Research design)

Teaching

Leibniz University Hannover

Master module "Understanding, guiding and evaluating environmental behaviour" - Graduate Level, 2022-present, TA of Ann-Kathrin Koessler

Master project "Data-driven environmental policy" - Graduate Level, 2024-2025, Main lecturer

Master project "Sustainable and resilient farming" - Graduate Level, 2023-2024, Main lecturer

Master project "Climate Change Communication: Optimism vs. Pessimism" - Graduate Level, 2023, Main lecturer

Master project "How do we get ready for a higher frequency of environmental hazards?" - Graduate Level, 2022-2023, Secondary lecturer

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Experiments and Causal Inference for Public Policy - Undergraduate Level, 2021, Course design

Microeconomics - Undergraduate Level, 2019, Main lecturer

Curriculum Vitae

Experienced behavioural economist with a focus on experimental economics, environmental economics and public policy.

Download Full CV

Contact

Email: vargas-lopez@umwelt.uni-hannover.de